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Gilad Naor's avatar

"The best predictor of job performance is watching someone do the job, or something as close to it as possible given interview constraints."

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The first half is correct.

The jump to the second half doesn't match my experience or the literature.

Think about it like this. A new employee joins your team. How many on the job hours do you give them before you know that they won't be a good fit? The answer is that you don't even measure it in hours or even days. The amount of data that you gather on the job is 3-4 *orders of magnitude* higher than during an interview.

There is no inherent reason to believe that simulation-based interviews will be predictive of on-the-job performance.

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